Phasing out fossil fuels and tackling short-lived climate forcers can halt global warming by 2050

Rapidly phasing out fossil fuels and cutting methane and other short-lived climate forcers could peak temperatures by 2050, according to new research from Climate Analytics, released prior to COP31.

Targeted cuts to short-lived climate forcers would bring quick rewards, slowing warming by around 12% by 2035. The combination of this with a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels could halve the rate of warming during the 2030s, reducing the pace at which climate risks intensify and giving communities and ecosystems time to adapt, and halt warming in mid-century at a peak of 1.7°C

“Halting global warming is still possible, but there are no shortcuts. Cuts to methane and other short-lived forcers can slow warming immediately, but they cannot substitute for phasing out fossil fuels,” said Anna Kanduth, senior climate policy analyst at Climate Analytics and co-author of the report. “We need to act with the highest possible ambition on every front.”

The report, The role of short-lived climate forcers in limiting overshoot and returning warming significantly below 1.5°C, examines how different mitigation measures affect the rate of warming, when temperatures peak, and how quickly they can begin to decline.

 “The timing of peak warming matters enormously. Every year temperatures continue rising increases the risks we face,” said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics. “We have the tools to peak warming by 2050 and set the world on a path back well below 1.5°C. The question is whether governments will act fast enough to use them.”

The study finds that methane reductions deliver the largest temperature benefits among the short-lived climate forcers examined. While reducing methane emissions from fossil fuel production remains important in the medium-term as the phase-out unfolds, agriculture and waste offer substantial additional opportunities for cutting methane in both the medium- and long-term.

However, the researchers find that neither fossil fuel phase-out nor cuts to short-lived climate forcers are sufficient on their own to bring temperatures back below 1.5°C this century.

In the most ambitious scenario examined, combining rapid fossil fuel phase-out, deep cuts to short-lived climate forcers, action on land use, carbon removal and reductions in other greenhouse gases could see global warming peak at approximately 1.6°C in the early 2040s, before declining to around 1.2°C by 2100.

The findings reinforce that returning to well below 1.5°C remains possible but requires the highest possible ambition across all mitigation measures, with the fossil phase-out and efforts to curb short-lived climate forcers playing a dominant role, and carbon removals essential. The analysis also shows that additional methane reductions cannot compensate for a slower transition away from fossil fuels.

As governments meet at COP31 in Antalya, the research highlights how decisions made this decade will determine how high temperatures rise, when warming peaks, and how long the world remains above 1.5°C. 

PDF:
The role of short-lived climate forcers in limiting overshoot and returning warming significantly below 1.5°C

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