Uzbekistan raises growth target as economy accelerates

Uzbekistan has lifted its 2026 GDP forecast to 8.1% and President Shavkat Mirziyoyev is now aiming for 9% to 10% annual growth, a pace well above international projections. The push underscores a broader state strategy built on domestic demand, industry, tourism and energy expansion — but also exposes infrastructure and financing constraints.

Why it matters: - Uzbekistan is trying to turn rapid growth from a short-term boost into a long-term state strategy. - The country’s new targets are far above IMF, World Bank, ADB and EBRD forecasts, widening the gap between domestic ambition and external expectations. - Sustaining 9% to 10% growth would require more power, stronger institutions, deeper investment and broader reform.

What happened: - Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Economy and Finance raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast in the Fiscal Strategy for 2027–2029 from 6.6% to 8.1%. - President Shavkat Mirziyoyev then called for sustainable annual economic growth of 9% to 10%. - Alona Lebedieva, owner of the Ukrainian industrial and investment group Aurum Group, said the revision shows rapid growth is becoming a distinct state strategy. - The government expects growth to ease to 6.9% in 2027, then rise to 7.1% in 2028 and 7.4% in 2029.

The details: - The IMF expects Uzbekistan’s economy to grow 6.8% in 2026. - The Asian Development Bank forecasts 6.7% growth in 2026. - The EBRD projects 6.5% growth in 2026. - The World Bank forecasts 6.4% growth in 2026. - Uzbekistan’s economy grew 8.7% in the first quarter of 2026 and 8.5% in the first half, according to preliminary estimates. - State budget revenues are expected to come in 19% above the previous forecast. - The government links the stronger performance to high global prices for gold and copper, plus faster growth in services, industry, construction and agriculture. - Services are now expected to grow 16.6%, up from 14.5%. - Industrial production is expected to rise 8%, up from 6.4%. - Construction is expected to expand 12.4%, up from 10.2%. - Agriculture is expected to grow 5%, up from 4.2%. - Uzbekistan plans to produce 510,000 passenger cars in 2026. - The production target breaks down to 396,000 vehicles from UzAuto Motors, 69,000 from ADM Jizzakh, 40,000 from BYD Uzbekistan Factory and 5,000 from Volkswagen. - Uzbekistan produced 457,800 passenger cars in 2025. - Chevrolet vehicles made by UzAuto Motors account for most of the domestic market. - UzAuto Motors was formerly Daewoo Uzbekistan and was reoriented toward domestic demand after nationalisation in 2019. - Uzbekistan’s population is approaching 39 million, and about 75% of citizens are under 50. - Rising incomes, preferential lending and state support programmes are lifting sales of cars, housing and services. - Uzbekistan welcomed a record 11.7 million foreign visitors in 2025 and plans to reach 16 million in 2026. - The country expects 483 new lodging facilities, including 86 hotels, to open to support tourism growth. - In 2025, 3.3 million visitors came from Kyrgyzstan. - Tajikistan and Kazakhstan each sent 2.7 million visitors in 2025. - Uzbekistan introduced visa-free travel for Chinese citizens in 2025. - The government plans to raise electricity generation to 93.3 billion kWh in 2026, including 14.3 billion kWh from solar and wind. - Natural gas production is forecast at 25.4 billion cubic metres. - Electricity generation stood at 86.7 billion kWh at the start of the year. - In July, daily power use hit a record during temperatures that reached 48°C. - On 17 July, the Ministry of Energy introduced rolling blackouts lasting two to three hours a day in some areas. - Gold and copper remain among Uzbekistan’s main exports. - Higher copper demand from electric vehicles, renewable energy, power grids and global electrification could support export revenue and investment. - Uzbekistan is also trying to expand industry, financial services, tourism, technology, service exports and the Tashkent International Financial Centre. - The centre is expected to attract capital, strengthen finance and support higher-value-added production.

Between the lines: - The growth story is broad-based, not tied to a single export sector, which makes the expansion look stronger but also more demanding. - Energy is the clearest bottleneck. Manufacturing, construction, transport, data centres and services all need more electricity, and current supply is already under pressure. - Commodity prices are helping now, but the strategy only works long term if Uzbekistan reduces dependence on gold, copper and other raw materials. - The government appears to be betting that domestic demand, public investment and tourism can support a more diversified economy.

What's next: - Uzbekistan will need to add generating capacity, modernize grids and keep enough reserves to avoid power shortages. - The success of the 2026 target will depend on whether strong demand can be converted into a more durable growth model. - The key test is whether Uzbekistan can hold growth near 9% to 10% for several years, not just during a favorable commodity cycle.

The bottom line: - Uzbekistan is aiming higher than outside forecasters, but the next phase of growth will depend less on momentum and more on electricity, finance and reform.